thread so, not the massive drop in cases and deaths?
I know we still have to be careful, but more people are now dying from normal flu than covid flu.. even at this time of year. and we dont lockdown every christmas.

While there are plenty of people stupidly ignoring simple things to reduce the risks, there is also a lot of people who have taken the doom-mongering to extremes, and are avoiding doing healthy / sensible things which have tiny associated risks... like going outside for a walk, or a picnic with your family. There seems to be a lot of people who simply dont want to hear good news about this.
permalink I mean you are getting 30-40 cases per day in the sw
amongst 5.6m people. you'd have to snog 28000 people before you got more than even odds of finding someone who had it in the last week.
https://www.arcgis.com...
there isn't a single ward level that had more that 2 cases last week.

and while that doesn't mean we should have glastonbury and reopen offices etc, it does mean that if you take precautions you can live a moderately functional life.

and given your back ground of not-very-risk averse sporting endeavours, it's a different order of magnitude.


permalink Sports injuries tend not to be contageous.
120 people of covid died yesterday in the UK. 48 people died on the day lockdown started.

The R rate is at 0.8 - 0.9, so it won't take much to push it back up above 1.
permalink my point is that it's very regional
and that there is a difference between going to a busy pub and having a functional life... manley seemed to be suggestion the original lockdown shouldn't have bean eased at all.

and yes sports injuries aren't contagious but on a "risk to his family" measure, there are other things way riskier than covid. even a second wave of covid.
permalink According to your link there were five cases in my ward last week.
A ward in Oldham had 22.
A ward in Bradford 32.
permalink I don't want a Twiname gang up to happen
but I'm a bit confused why you're arguing the point - you're not in a self imposed lockdown are you?
permalink "there isn't a single ward level that had more that 2 cases last week"
Either that's wrong or I've misunderstood.

permalink Oh I see
I thought he meant in the South West
permalink I now have a slightly odd image of you and alistair
as a tag team wrestling partnership!

You can choose whether WWE, old school British or lucha libre style!
permalink it has to be lucha libre
those women are fierce (and some of the men wear tutu's)
permalink and that's why local lock-downs are needed and useful.
but there is no point locking up cornwall because northumberland is having a problem...

also if track and trace is working properly, things will look spikey, if you find a family group has it, you will (hopefully) quickly find all the related cases, so that will look like a spike. if you aren't tracking them down they will pop up more slowly over the course of a couple of weeks. (of course i tmight not be working well)

and hopefully they are able to get sense of why there are peaks... was it a rave in oldham, a church in bradford or dogging in essex. which will presumably guide what aspects are locked down.
permalink Surely dogging would be very safe
As long as you don't get out of the car and start licking people.
permalink My impression is that the latter is very much what happens.
And what your average dogger is looking for.
permalink The reason there is not a lot down here is that it is not really here yet.
Every cunt coming down on holiday (and it is busier than i have ever known it) is just bringing disease to a place not yet infected badly.

I do want to hear good news, but cunts going to the pub, refusing to socially distance and milling around outside my front door is not good news, and is why I have been in lockdown - not even going to the shops - since 27th February.

Why do people think that holidays are a good reason to travel? Fuck off out of here, you awful cunts. Yeah, I hear it is good for your mental wellbeing, but I like driving at 140, but do not do it on public roads.
permalink the cunts have been going down there for 8 weeks, (when thre were far more cases kicking around)
Being outdoors is not a major risk factor, none of the big "oh shock look at all the people on the beach" stuff seems to have kicked off any spikes, neither did the BLM protests. .. and you still have next-to-no cases

And the idea that your area is more vulnerable because it hasn't had it yet, does not stand up, herd immunity counts for next to nothing at the levels of infection we've seen.. and the fact you are in a sparsely populated, relatively affluent area, with less house-sharing and mulit-family dwellings will make a bigger difference.


But my point of starting this was really to say you need to be looking after yourself better, and locking yourself up in your house is not good for you, or your family, and frankly they are more at risk of you going mental than getting covid... let alone health issues, financial fall-out and the smell.

for context, there is on average 1 person in hospital with covid PER HOSPITAL at the moment. The traffic the tourists are bringing is more dangerous than the disease.

permalink and
Travel is pretty much an essential part of a holiday.. otherwise you are just at home.. which people were already. And if you live in a flat with 2 kids the need to get out somewhere is pretty pressing.. i'm sorry if your sparsely populated place became slightly less sparsely populated.
permalink there are old timers in his area
still going for their daily sunrise swim.. working the allotments and doing the big shop in exeter
each to his own i guess.. but let the bloody kids out!
permalink I am doing those things,
but I cannot go out in town in the daytime, it is ridiculous out there.

I am not going to shops, but I am driving to the woods and going to the beach for a swim if it is low tide before 7.
permalink A holidy is not essential for anyone.
I get that people want to rationalise doing the things they feel like doing, but coming to a really aged area like this, with an average age of 55, which is not at all affluent, but indeed one of the most deprived catchments, is just selfish.

Just do not come here.

I did not expect anyone on this board to be a conspiracy theorist or denier.
permalink I am neither
and i'm not saying people should all troop down to the SW, i was just pointing out that when you said "why do people think holidays are a good reason to travel?" is a bit like saying "why to people think that meals are a good excuse to eat?"

But back to my main point, locking yourself up for 5 months and counting, is really really not good for you. and continuing to look for reasons not to leave the house, or go to a shop when it's quiet, get some exercise, go for a drive.. or any of the 100s of very very low risk things you can do even in a busy area is not a healthy mindset either.

But more widely things ARE much better than they were at any time since february, they may not continue to be for everywhere if cunts cunt around too much. but becoming a hermit martyr isn't helping anyone... we might be dealing with this for a while so take what respite you can while it's low risk.

permalink That is a terrible equivolence.
We require food - holidays are a very modern and utterly unnecessary luxury. Yes they are fun, but pretending they are important enough to justify travelling in a pandemic is absurd.

Not going out with others IS helping everyone - if we all did it then we might be past this by now, as with NZ - going to a town you do not live in makes you a bit of the problem.
permalink So i'm confused, are you locking yourself in your house and not
going to the shop (for example) because of any special vulnerability? are you going outside and getting exercise fresh air etc? Your initial comments lead me to think you weren't.

I agree that travel increases risk, and in some areas that has (and should have) been restricted. and in all areas "not being a cunt" is important.

But if you live in a place of low risk, stay in that area of low risk, and don't be an arse then there is plenty of things which involve adding a tiny bit to a very small risk... and that keeps it to a level which we have all been fine with in other contexts. Eg the annual flu rush in winter that we ignore, traffic deaths, smoking, mountain biking etc. I dont know about your circs but there are people that have shut themselves up entirely, (for no raised susceptibility reasons).. this is stupid, it's simply making them amplify the fear of an unknown but tiny risk and ignore the real and well understood risk.

for context, total death rate now is lower than the 5 year average, more people are dying of "normal" flu, than covid, positive case rate is pretty much flat https://www.cebm.net/c... and the peaks areas being discovered are concerning, but would also be what you expect to see in a functioning track and trace system (eg they were always there but hidden in the noise). - We've done 25 tests for every 100 people in the country, the highest in any country of more than 10m people..

The bad things that are happening are because people cant go to hospital for normal procedures, or because of the long term effect of the shit we are in, physical, mental and financial.



Comparing us to NZ is pointless, it's a super remote, super low density population who got extra warning and were able to act fast, that was NEVER going to work in the UK, and even if it could have that ship sailed a long time ago, it likely sailed before january...



permalink I want to stay in the area of low risk, but all the fuckers in areas of high risk are coming here.
Why the fuck can they not just stay away?

I live somewhere remote with low density population and where we had early warning, but everyone in the areas which did not have that seem to think that their situation should be applied to us.

The biggest argument I have with deniers is that they seem to put up lots of reasons why it is not a much greater risk to me to go out. I know that - How selfish do you have to be to think that lockdown is for those who are locked down? I am not making the streets busier here because they are already heaving and we have a very aged population here.
permalink When you say denier
what is it that you mean?
permalink Someone who has decided to deny that sensible precautions are worthwhile
to prevent the wider spread of the disease,

In the face of actual evidence that those places where this attitude has been adopted have had massively larger death tolls.

1000 people die every day in the US now - 1 in 1500 British people have died with CXIX.

I would give the kiss of life to a known infected person, but if you thin a holiday is more important than not travelling to low risk areas from high risk areas then i am afraid I think you are simply rationalising to appease your own selfishness.

Going on holiday to a place full of old people and the vulnerable is like joyriding or throwing litter from your car - it makes your life mildly better now, but is worse for everyone, including you, in the longer term.

Also something to do with the opacity of tights.
permalink Well, I'm not great at articulating
but I think some parts of your logic are oversimplified. By no means do I think we've done it right in the UK, but I do think you have a bit more 'safe' leeway than you're giving yourself.
permalink you seem to be reacting to a situation that doesn't exist
the infection rate has never been at the point where people have needed to avoid exposure for their own sake

lockdown and associated measures have never been about reducing exposure, lockdown and associated measures have only ever been about reducing the reproduction rate to ensure we never go to that point

you could go out tomorrow and lick the faces of every visitor in Dawlish and have a negligible chance of infection

as long as each infected person infects, on average, less than one person, and we crack down on any local superspreader events do make sure that happens, there is no reason for you to be hiding indoors and treating this like Ebola, because your personal chances of getting this are, under current conditions, almost zero, and everyone else is coming from places where there chances of catching it are almost zero. Do your part to keep R down but otherwise live life as normal.

we never got to the point where you have any substantial risk, as long as you are not specifically highly vulnerable for a medical reason, and even then...
permalink anyway, welcome back
it's been a while since the board has been this wide
permalink Or, on a more realistic scale,
if you walk across town and have coffee with a friend in their garden, the risk to both you and everyone else is negligible.