thread I mean you are getting 30-40 cases per day in the sw
amongst 5.6m people. you'd have to snog 28000 people before you got more than even odds of finding someone who had it in the last week.
https://www.arcgis.com...
there isn't a single ward level that had more that 2 cases last week.

and while that doesn't mean we should have glastonbury and reopen offices etc, it does mean that if you take precautions you can live a moderately functional life.

and given your back ground of not-very-risk averse sporting endeavours, it's a different order of magnitude.


permalink Sports injuries tend not to be contageous.
120 people of covid died yesterday in the UK. 48 people died on the day lockdown started.

The R rate is at 0.8 - 0.9, so it won't take much to push it back up above 1.
permalink my point is that it's very regional
and that there is a difference between going to a busy pub and having a functional life... manley seemed to be suggestion the original lockdown shouldn't have bean eased at all.

and yes sports injuries aren't contagious but on a "risk to his family" measure, there are other things way riskier than covid. even a second wave of covid.
permalink According to your link there were five cases in my ward last week.
A ward in Oldham had 22.
A ward in Bradford 32.
permalink I don't want a Twiname gang up to happen
but I'm a bit confused why you're arguing the point - you're not in a self imposed lockdown are you?
permalink "there isn't a single ward level that had more that 2 cases last week"
Either that's wrong or I've misunderstood.

permalink Oh I see
I thought he meant in the South West
permalink I now have a slightly odd image of you and alistair
as a tag team wrestling partnership!

You can choose whether WWE, old school British or lucha libre style!
permalink it has to be lucha libre
those women are fierce (and some of the men wear tutu's)
permalink and that's why local lock-downs are needed and useful.
but there is no point locking up cornwall because northumberland is having a problem...

also if track and trace is working properly, things will look spikey, if you find a family group has it, you will (hopefully) quickly find all the related cases, so that will look like a spike. if you aren't tracking them down they will pop up more slowly over the course of a couple of weeks. (of course i tmight not be working well)

and hopefully they are able to get sense of why there are peaks... was it a rave in oldham, a church in bradford or dogging in essex. which will presumably guide what aspects are locked down.
permalink Surely dogging would be very safe
As long as you don't get out of the car and start licking people.
permalink My impression is that the latter is very much what happens.
And what your average dogger is looking for.